A method of controlling cooling water treatment may involve measuring operating data of one or more downstream heat exchangers that receive cooling water from the cooling tower. For example, the inlet and outlet temperatures of both the hot and cold streams of a downstream heat exchanger may be measured. Data from the streams passing through the heat exchanger may be used to determine a heat transfer efficiency for the heat exchanger. The heat transfer efficiency can be trended over a period of time and changes in the trend detected to identify cooling water fouling issues. Multiple potential causes of the perceived fouling issues can be evaluated to determine a predicted cause. A chemical additive selected to reduce, eliminate, or otherwise control the cooling water fouling can be controlled based on the predicted cause of the fouling.