发明申请
US20060074817A1 Methods and systems for cumulative attribute forecasting using a PDF of a current-to-future value ratio
有权
使用当前到未来价值比率的PDF进行累积属性预测的方法和系统
- 专利标题: Methods and systems for cumulative attribute forecasting using a PDF of a current-to-future value ratio
- 专利标题(中): 使用当前到未来价值比率的PDF进行累积属性预测的方法和系统
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申请号: US10959861申请日: 2004-10-06
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公开(公告)号: US20060074817A1公开(公告)日: 2006-04-06
- 发明人: Jerry Shan , Hsiu-Khuem Tang
- 申请人: Jerry Shan , Hsiu-Khuem Tang
- 主分类号: G06F17/00
- IPC分类号: G06F17/00
摘要:
Systems and methods are disclosed for cumulative attribute forecasting using a probability density function of a current-to-future value ratio. Some method embodiments may comprise determining an unconditional probability density function for a ratio of a cumulative attribute's current value to an associated future value for the cumulative attribute, and determining an unconditional PDF for a future value of the cumulative attribute. The unconditional probability functions are combined with a current value of the cumulative attribute in a manner that yields a conditional probability density function for the future value. The conditional probability density function may then be used to determine forecasts such as a most likely future value, a mean value, a median value, a confidence interval for the future value, and a probability of achieving a future value within some specified range.
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