An activity model is generated at a computer. The activity model may be generated by monitoring incoming and outgoing data in the computer. The collected data is analyzed to form a graph that describes and predicts what output is generated in response to received input. Later, a window of input and output data is collected from the computer. This collected window of data is used to query the activity model. The graph in the activity model is then used to give the probability that the collected window of data was collected from the computer used to generate the activity model. A high probability indicates that the computer is performing normally, while a low probability indicates that the computer may behaving erratically and there may be a problem with the computer.