Methods, apparatus, and products are disclosed for analyzing network traffic using an improved Markov Modulated Poisson Process Model with two barrier states that include: retrieving a previous state for the network traffic; measuring inter-arrival times between individual packets received in one or more network adapters; establishing a transition window in dependence upon the measured inter-arrival times, the transition window having a transition value λBmax that represents an upper boundary for the inter-arrival times in a bursty state and having a transition value λImin that represents a lower boundary for the inter-arrival times in an idle state; retrieving a previous fence value that prevents premature transitions into the idle state or the bursty state; and determining a current state for the network traffic in dependence upon the previous state for the network traffic, an inter-arrival time of a most recently received packet, the transition values, and the previous fence value.