A system and method for estimating an occurrence of a water breakthrough in a production well is provided that includes estimating, at least periodically, a measure of water in the fluid produced from one or more production zones and estimating the occurrence of the water breakthrough utilizing at least in part a trend of the estimated measures of the produced fluid. A controller determines one or more actions to be taken to mitigate an effect of the water breakthrough and may automatically initiate one or more such actions. It is emphasized that this abstract is provided to comply with the rules requiring an abstract which will allow a searcher or other reader to quickly ascertain the subject matter of the technical disclosure. It is submitted with the understanding that it will not be used to interpret or limit the scope or meaning of the claims.