A system for predicting an occurrence of a critical even in a computer cluster includes: a control system that includes an event log, a system parameter log, a memory for storing information related to occurrences of critical events, and a processor. The processor implements a hybrid prediction system; loads the information from the event log and the system performance log into a Bayesian network model; uses the Bayesian network model to predict a future critical event; makes future scheduling and current data migration selections; and adapts the Bayesian network model by feeding the scheduling and data migration selections.