Systems, apparatus, and methods for determining groups of similar consumers and for identifying a trend in consumer behavior are provided. Likelihoods of a transaction being initiated at various times by one consumer can be calculated based on previous transactions of the consumer. The likelihoods for different consumers can be used to determine a group of similar consumers as a demographic. The likelihoods of a transaction being initiated at various times by a consumer of a demographic (or other entity) can be used to forecast trends (such as a demand for a product) and make business decisions, such as for marketing campaigns, inventory levels (e.g. at particular stores or for all stores), pricing, and store locations. Such likelihoods when focused to a particular category of transactions can provide even greater accuracy.