Many computing scenarios involve an item cache or index, comprising items corresponding to source items that may change without notice, rendering the item in the item cache or index stale. It may not be possible to guarantee the freshness of the items, but it may be desirable to reduce staleness in an efficient manner. Therefore, the refreshing of items may be prioritized by first predicting the query frequency of respective item representing the rate at which an item is retrieved from the item cache (e.g., by monitoring queries for the item), predicting an update frequency representing the rate at which the source item is updated by the source item host (e.g., by classifying the source item type), and computing a refresh utility representing the improvement in cache freshness achieved by refreshing the item. Respective items may then be prioritized for refreshing according to the computed refresh utilities.