Synthetic healthcare data generation can include receiving an indication of a particular quantity of people, receiving an indication of a particular quantity of time periods, assigning a respective set of characteristics to each of the people based on a statistical model, simulating a respective path for each of the people through a set of clinical practice guidelines over the specified time periods, wherein each path is determined based on the respective set of characteristics, determining a probability associated with a progression of a medical condition for each of the people at the end of each time period, and generating a synthetic data set for each of the people based on the simulated paths and the determined probabilities.