Techniques for unusual usage alerts without smart meter data are provided. The computing device can determine a set of climate control disaggregation coefficients and obtain weather data corresponding to at least a portion of a billing period. In turn, the computing device can determine first forecasted usage data for the at least a portion of the billing period based on the set of climate control disaggregation coefficients and the weather data, and determine second forecasted usage data for a length of the billing period based at least in part on the first forecasted usage data. In some aspects, the computing device can project unusual energy usage for the billing period based on the second forecasted usage data determined to be greater than usage data for a prior time period. The computing device can generate an alert notification including an indication of the unusual energy usage projection.