A field visit or other verification is required to verify each prevented planting PP (PP) claim after it is filed. No measurements pursuant to calculating crop loss are taken during this initial visit, only general information and photographs are collected to demonstrate claim validity. PP claims occur most often in very wet years with high claim density (claims/policies) that strains crop loss adjusting staff and causes significant costs to support what generally is no more than a picture of a soggy field and notes to that effect. Through the use of statistically and physically-based models the present invention provides estimates of the probability for PP claims throughout huge geographic regions potentially obviating nearly all field confirmation except for claims filed for conditions of low forecasted claim probability that have higher potential for insurance fraud.