A setpoint alarming system includes a feedback controller that monitors a process variable provided as a feedback signal from a plant and uses an error signal representing a difference between the process variable and a setpoint to generate a control signal for the plant. The plant uses the control signal to affect the process variable. The system includes a normalized index generator that uses the error signal to generate a normalized performance index for the plant. The system includes an expected value estimator that estimates a value of the normalized performance index expected to occur when a setpoint error of a predetermined magnitude has persisted for a predetermined duration. The system includes an alarm manager that compares the normalized performance index to the expected value and generates an alarm in response to the normalized performance index dropping below the expected value.