Systems and methods for controlling blocks in a memory device using a health indicator (such as the failed bit count) for the blocks are disclosed. However, the health indicator may exhibit noise, thereby resulting in an unreliable indicator of the health of the blocks in the memory device. In order to filter out the noise, a rolling average of the health indicator may be determined, and compared to the current health indicator. The comparison with the rolling average may indicate whether the current health indicator is an outlier, and thus should not be used. The health indicator may also be used to predict a future health indicator for different blocks in the memory device. Using the predicted future health indicator, the use of the blocks may be changed in order to more evenly wear the blocks.