Certain embodiments involve learning user preferences and predicting user behavior based on sequential user behavior data. For example, a system obtains data about a sequence of prior actions taken by multiple users. The system determines a similarity between a prior action taken by the various users and groups the various users into groups or clusters based at least in part on the similarity. The system trains a machine-learning algorithm such that the machine-learning algorithm can be used to predict a subsequent action of a user among the various users based on the various clusters. The system further obtains data about a current action of a new user and determines which of the clusters to associate with the new user based on the new user's current action. The system determines an action to be recommended to the new user based on the cluster associated with the new user. The action can include a series or sequence of actions to be taken by the new user. The system further provides the series or sequence of actions or an action of the series or sequence to the new user.