Embodiments of the present invention provide a method, system and computer program product for smart elevator car destination management according to probabilistic destination determination. In an embodiment of the invention, a method for smart elevator car destination management according to probabilistic destination determination includes predicting a set of passengers requesting use of an elevator car in a bank of elevator cars in a building and determining a probability for each of the passengers that each passenger will select as a destination a particular floor in the building. The method also includes grouping ones of the passengers in the set according to a common floor determined to be probable for the grouped ones of the passengers. Finally, the method includes displaying in connection with the bank of elevator cars an assignment of the grouped ones of the passengers to one of the elevator cars in the bank.