Embodiments of the present invention are directed to methods and systems for performing a secure authentication process by leveraging the historical transaction data associated with an issuer. The historical transaction data stored at a fraud detection system may include the types of frequency of past authentication processes performed by the issuer, allowing for a determination of the likelihood of an authentication challenge process being applied to a current transaction. A merchant may define merchant rules that define what authentication process, if any, should then be applied to the current transaction based on the likelihood of an authentication challenge process being applied to the current transaction.