Endpoint security systems and methods include a distance estimation module configured to calculate a travel distance between a source Internet Protocol (IP) address and an IP address for a target network endpoint system from a received packet received by the target network endpoint system based on time-to-live (TTL) information from the received packet. A machine learning model is configured to estimate an expected travel distance between the source IP address and the target network endpoint system IP address based on a sparse set of known source/target distances. A spoof detection module is configured to determine that the received packet has a spoofed source IP address based on a comparison between the calculated travel distance and the expected travel distance. A security module is configured to perform a security action at the target network endpoint system responsive to the determination that the received packet has a spoofed source IP address.