A method includes receiving a setpoint and a time of interest indicating a time in the future when the setpoint is to be reached and obtaining a first data set comprising a plurality of lag values, the plurality of lag values associated with one or more variables related to the HVAC system. The method further includes selecting a second data set comprising a subset of the lag values from the first data set and determining a predicted condition at the time of interest based at least in part on the lag values in the second data set. The method further includes determining a schedule for operating heating or cooling components of the HVAC system such that the setpoint is reached by the time of interest and communicating one or more signals instructing the HVAC system to operate according to the schedule.