A method for crowd prediction in an elevator system includes logging the number of calls across a period of time and generating a first time series for an average number of calls; collecting external influence data and generating a second time series for the external influence data; performing a cross-correlation test on the first and second time series; when a cross-correlation between the first and second time series is determined, performing a causality test on the first and second time series; and when a causal relationship between the first and second time series is determined, using the causal relationship to predict an expected number of calls in the elevator system.