Methods and systems for managing a wagering system may receive a stream of state information of a live sporting event in real time and determine initial and possible future states of a first performance parameter of the event based on the stream. After a beginning of the game and before the start of the event, a probability of occurrence is calculated for possible future states of the first performance parameter, based on historical data. During an initial state of the first performance parameter, a signal operative to open a first market for betting on the possible future states based on the probability of occurrence is transmitted. Before an end of the initial state, a signal operative to close the first market is transmitted, and then an outcome of the first performance parameter is determined based on the stream. Payouts of the first market are resolved based on the outcome.