Basal insulin recommendations and bolus recommendations are provided by analyzing profiles of blood glucose risk to determine whether basal or bolus amounts should be increased or decreased in consideration of the ratio of basal insulin vs. bolus insulin as a portion of total daily insulin. In some embodiments, systems and methods seek to correct systematic imbalances between rapid acting bolus and daily basal utilizing physiological cloning, which models patient diabetes data resulting from patient physiology and behavior (lifestyle and diet). In some embodiments, the systems and methods use constraints on percentage of total daily insulin attributed to basal and/or bolus. In some embodiments, optimization is performed without using patient-provided carbohydrate information.