An online recommendation system can choose recipes to recommend to a customer based on a set of ingredients the customer is inferred to have on hand (a customer pantry model). For example, the recommendation system can look at recent or historical purchases made by the customer and determine what items the customer still has available based on an assumed shelf life for the purchased items. Using the customer pantry model, the recommendation system selects recipes based on overlapping ingredients between recipe's ingredient lists and ingredients available to the customer (including the customer pantry model and their current shopping cart). In some implementations, the recommendation system first selects a set of candidate recipes based on the overlap, then selects the final set of recipes to recommend based on a score optimization (for example, performed using a machine learning model).