Systems, apparatuses, methods, and computer program products are disclosed for disaggregating seasonal load from overall electricity consumption. An example method includes receiving, by a disaggregation system, historical data comprising (i) historical daily load data for a residence for a particular time period and (ii) an average temperature at the residence for each day in the particular time period. The example method further includes fitting, by the disaggregation system, a data model to the historical data, and calculating, by the disaggregation system and using the data model, an estimated seasonal load for a target time period. The example method further includes causing, by the disaggregation system, one or more notifications to be provided based on the estimated seasonal load for the target time period. Corresponding apparatuses and computer program products are also disclosed.