A system comprises processing circuitry configured to receive parametric data for a plurality of parameters of a patient. The parametric data is generated by one or more sensing devices of the patient based on physiological signals of the patient sensed by the one or more sensing devices. The plurality of parameters comprise AF burden. The processing circuitry is configured to derive one or more features based on the parametric data for the plurality of parameters, wherein the one or more features comprise at least one AF burden pattern feature, apply the one or more features to a model, and determine a risk level of a health event for the patient based on the application of the one or more features to the model.