A method for predicting a service state of a printing machine at a defined point in time includes:



measuring a plurality of successive process values of a process parameter which is an indicator of the functionality of the printing machine;
determining a plurality of successive scatter values which describe the spread of the measured process values within a predetermined time range;
determining a local scatter minimum of the scatter values;
determining a baseline, in that a baseline value is established that correlates with the value of the process parameter at the point in time of the local minimum and that does not change up until a new determination of a baseline; and
determining a health value at a specific point in time, with a predetermined relation of the process value to the baseline value at this point in time. A service state is assessed
upon the health value exceeding a predetermined threshold.