In implementations of systems for estimating temporal occurrence of a binary state change, a computing device implements an occurrence system to compute a posterior probability distribution for temporal occurrences of binary state changes associated with client computing devices included in a group of client computing devices. The occurrence system determines probabilities of a binary state change associated with a client computing device included in the group of client computing devices based on the posterior probability distribution, and the probabilities correspond to future periods of time. A future period of time is identified based on a probability of the binary state change associated with the client computing device. The occurrence system generates a communication based on a communications protocol for transmission to the client computing device via a network at a period of time that correspond to the future period of time.