One embodiment of the present invention sets forth techniques for evaluating connections between nodes in a mesh network. The techniques include determining, by a first node, a number of messages received by the first node from a second node during a period of time, the period of time including a number of listening windows during which a message is expected to be received from the second node; determining, by the first node based on the number of messages received and the number of listening windows, a received message success rate associated with the second node; selecting, by the first node, the second node from a plurality of neighbor nodes based on the received message success rate; and transmitting, by the first node, a first message to a target destination via the second node.