Methods and systems are for receiving network data representing a quality of a communication link in a network, the network data comprising a bandwidth value representing an available bandwidth for the communication link; detecting, based on the network data, that the available bandwidth has changed or will change from a first bandwidth level to a second bandwidth level; determining a probability that the network is congested; when the probability satisfies a threshold value, adjusting a bitrate for the communications link to a first value that enables network congestion to clear; when the probability does not satisfy the threshold value, adjusting the bitrate for the communications link to a second value that fully utilizes the second bandwidth level.