A cardiac rhythm management system predicts when an arrhythmia will occur and in one embodiment invokes a therapy to prevent or reduce the consequences of the arrhythmia. A cardiac arrhythmia trigger/marker is detected from a patient, and based on the trigger/marker, the system estimates a probability of a cardiac arrhythmia occurring during a predetermined future time interval. The system provides a list of triggers/markers, for which detection values are recurrently obtained at various predetermined time intervals. Based on detection values and conditional probabilities associated with the triggers/markers, a probability estimate of a future arrhythmia is computed. An arrhythmia prevention therapy is selected and activated based on the probability estimate of the future arrhythmia.