A method of determining expected fatigue life of machined bearing races or other components wherein a hardened surface of each bearing race is machined to provide a machined surface including the steps of determining hardness distribution and residual stress distribution along a depth into the machined surface as a function of cutting parameters, determining a relationship of expected fatigue life of the machined bearing races as a function of the hardness distribution and the residual stress distribution using a fracture mechanics model, and determining expected fatigue life from the relationship using actual cutting parameters employed in machining the hardened surface of the bearing races. Cutting conditions to optimize fatigue life can be selected based on the expected fatigue life.