A method of manufacturing an exposure mask blank including a substrate and a light-shielding film formed on the substrate, comprising measuring a first flatness of each of a plurality of substrates before formation of a light-shielding film, predicting, on the basis of the first flatness, a second flatness of each substrate when chucked on an exposure apparatus, selecting from the plurality of substrates, at least one substrate having a predetermined flatness on the basis of the second flatness, predicting a desired third flatness of the at least one substrate after a light-shielding film is formed on the substrate, forming a light-shielding film on the selected at least one substrate, measuring a fourth flatness of the at least one substrate having the formed light-shielding film, and determining whether the at least one substrate having the light-shielding film has the desired third flatness by comparing the fourth flatness with the third flatness.