A system is provided for estimating the geographical distribution of user throughput in a cellular system, including user terminals and a base station for effecting wireless packet communications with user terminals inside in its own cell using a shared channel. Reception quality estimating means (11) estimates the reception quality of the shared channel at the location of a user terminal in the cell. Traffic information reading means (12) reads the traffic information on the estimation target area in which estimation of the reception quality was performed. User throughput estimating means (13) estimates the user throughput at the location of a user terminal in the cell, using the user throughput calculating function that receives as its input the reception quality of the shared channel at the location of the user terminal in the cell and the traffic information on the estimation target area and calculates user throughput.