Production control systems and methods are presented for estimation of production resource failure probabilities in which a set of four count values are maintained and updated for each resource including a first count value m11 indicating a number of plans where the resource m was used and failed, a second count value m10 indicating a number of plans where the resource m was used and succeeded, a third count value m01 indicating a number of plans where the resource m was not used and failed, and a fourth count value m00 indicating a number of plans where the resource m was not used and succeeded, and the current fault probability for each resource is estimated and stored for single or multiple, persistent or intermittent faults based on the corresponding count values.