A method for determining when a ceramic component on a platform should be replaced. The method includes determining parameters for the ceramic component, the parameters include empirically determined a critical stress intensity factor, and a geometry factor for the ceramic component. The method also includes determining a relationship between platform operational parameters to the generation of stress at the surface of interest of the ceramic component, determining an initial crack size of a crack within the ceramic component at installation, tracking operational parameters of the platform throughout a course of usage of the ceramic component, calculating the corresponding stress at the crack location due to the tracked operational parameters, and calculating a numerical solution that illustrates a crack growth rate velocity and tracks a size of the crack over time. The ceramic component is replaced based on the crack growth rate velocity and the size of the crack.