Predicting the probability of detection of major and minor defects in a structure includes simulating a plurality of N defects at random locations in a region specified by an array of transducers. Defect size is incremented until it intersects one path between two transducers. The defect size is again incremented until it intersects two or more adjacent paths between pairs of transducers. The number of major defects up to a selected size is determined by the total number of single path intersections by defects up to the selected size. The number of minor defects up to a selected size is determined on the basis of the total number of defects intersecting two or more paths up to the selected size. The probability of detection up to a selected size is the cumulative number of major or minor defects up to the selected size normalizing by N.