A reproduction signal evaluation method evaluates the quality of a reproduction signal reproduced from an information recording medium based on a binary signal generated from the reproduction signal using a PRML signal processing system. A pattern extraction step extracts, from the binary signal, a specific state transition pattern which has the possibility of causing a bit error; a step computes a differential metric based on the binary signal; an extraction step extracts the differential metric which is not greater than a predetermined signal processing threshold; a step determines a mean value of the differential metrics which are not greater than the signal processing threshold and extracted in the extraction step; a standard deviation computing step determines a standard deviation which corresponds to an error rate predicted from the mean value; and an evaluation step evaluates a quality of the reproduction signal using the standard deviation.