Methods, systems, and techniques for estimating patent infringement risk for a company using a statistical model of revenue are provided. Examples also provide a Patent Infringement Risk Assessment Tool, which uses these techniques to enable users to dynamically modify certain parameters and obtain a feel for their affect upon patent infringement risk exposure. Other examples describe the applicability of some of the methods and techniques for describing models of overall behavior when only the behavior of a segment at either the low end or high end (a tail) is known.