Systems and processes are disclosed for routing callers to agents in a contact center based on similar probabilities for an outcome variable. An exemplary probability multiplier process includes determining agent performance of a set of agents for an outcome variable (e.g., sales) and determining caller propensity of a set of callers for the outcome variable (e.g., the propensity or statistical chance of purchasing). Callers and agents are matched based on corresponding agent performance and propensity for the outcome variable of the caller, e.g., matching callers and agents having similar relative performance for the outcome variable, such as matching the highest ranked caller to the highest ranked agent, the worst ranked caller to the worst ranked agent, and so on. The performance and propensity of the callers and agents may be converted to percentile rankings, and callers and agents can be matched based on a closest match of percentile rankings.