Embodiments of the invention may help improve the accuracy of individually tailored prognoses in dealing with individual patient prognoses for cancer, diabetes, multiple sclerosis, heart disease, and/or other diseases. Alternate embodiments of the invention may be useful in improving the accuracy of predictions in a variety of other contexts and fields. A method according to various embodiments of the invention includes generating a univariate impact reflecting index (UIRI) based on an indicator, the indicator having a monotonic relationship to a focal conclusion; and determining a probability that the focal conclusion will occur, wherein determining the probability is based at least partially on a regression analysis of the UIRI.