A computer-implemented reservoir prediction system, method, and software are provided for updating simulation models of a subterranean reservoir. An ensemble of reservoir models representing a subterranean reservoir having non-Gaussian characteristics is provided, along with reservoir data from the subterranean reservoir used to condition the ensemble of reservoir models. For each of the reservoir models in the ensemble of reservoir models, a constrained optimization with equality constraints and inequality constraints are solved using a constrained Kernel Ensemble Kalman Filter to obtain a constrained optimal solution. The constrained optimal solutions are assembled to update the ensemble of reservoir models. The updated ensemble of reservoir models are consistent with the reservoir data provided from the subterranean reservoir and the non-Gaussian characteristics of the subterranean reservoir are preserved.