Providing a purchase incentive to a mobile device based for example the user's location, predicted route of travel, and prior transactions. A tracking server computer determines a number of locations of a mobile device as it travels along a route and an associated timeframe when it is at each of the locations. The tracking server computer records the locations and associated timeframes in a location log and analyzes the location log to predict a subsequent location and associated timeframe that the mobile device will be at that location. The tracking server computer then determines a merchant proximate to the predicted subsequent location of the mobile device and generates a purchase incentive for use at the merchant and delivers the purchase incentive to the mobile device. In the alternative, the incentive may be generated by a merchant computer or the mobile device.