Systems and methods for predicting a conversion rate of a content publisher-third-party content provider pair are disclosed. A processor identifies, from log data, a plurality of publisher-provider pairs. Each publisher-provider pair corresponds to a content provider associated with at least one creative receiving at least one conversion when served on information resources of the publisher. The processor determines, for each publisher-provider pair, a conversion rate. The processor determines, for each publisher-provider pair, feature data of the publisher and feature data of the content provider. The processor can transform the determined feature data of the publishers and content providers and the conversion rates of the plurality of publisher-provider pairs into a conversion rate prediction model useful for predicting a conversion rate of a given publisher-provider pair different from the identified plurality of publisher-provider pairs.