Systems, methods, and apparatuses are described for estimating traffic conditions on road segments when no real time traffic data is available. A computing device may access a road topology comprising links from a geographic database. One of the links is selected from road topology. The computing device identifies a subset of the road topology having neighboring links that have an influentual conditional probability on the selected link. In one example, the subset of the neighboring links includes parent links for the selected link, child links for the selected link, and parents of child links of the selected link. The computing device generates a traffic estimation model for the selected link using the subset of road topology and historical traffic data for the neighboring links.