In one embodiment, a committed information rate (CIR) prediction is received from a machine learning model that corresponds to a predicted average traffic rate supported by a network connection. A traffic shaping strategy is adjusted based on the CIR prediction. A rate at which data is communicated over the network connection may be based on the traffic shaping policy. The effects of the adjusted traffic shaping strategy are also monitored. Feedback is further provided to the machine learning model based on the monitored effects of the adjusted traffic shaping strategy.