The invention is directed, in part, to method of using self-reported health data in online communities to predict significant health events in life-changing illnesses to improve the lives of individuals and to improve patient self-management. The invention provides a method for providing real-time personalized medical predictions for an individual patient. The method includes: providing a database containing patient information for a plurality of other patients including one or more attributes for each patient in the database; constructing a model of a disease based on disease progressions for the plurality of patients; receiving a request from the individual patient, the patient associated with one or more attributes; and making a real-time prediction for the individual patient based on the mode and the individual patient's attributes.