One embodiment of the present invention sets forth a technique for adapting playback bit rate to available delivery bandwidth in a content delivery system comprising a content server and a content player. A content player periodically estimates whether a given playback bit rate can feasibly provide complete playback for a given title assuming currently available bandwidth. If playback becomes unfeasible at a current bit rate assuming currently available bandwidth, then the content player adapts the bit rate downward until a feasible bit rate is achieved. If playback is feasible using a higher bit rate, then the content player may adapt the bit rate upward.