Disclosed in some examples are predictive storage techniques for use in a distributed data system. The predictive storage techniques may be used to manage locally stored elements of a shared data collection, such as the storage of files on nodes of the distributed data system that are limited in local storage space. The predictive storage techniques may achieve a balance between consumption of local resources and timely access of important elements in the shared data collection. For example, the predictive storage techniques may be used for keeping or pre-caching certain items of a collection that are determined as likely to be used in local storage for convenient access, and allowing access the remaining items on request over a network.