In an example embodiment, a method of calculating end-of-life (EOL) predictions for a physical asset is provided. A state-space model for the physical asset is obtained, the state-space model being a physics-based model describing a state of the physical asset at a particular time given measurements or observations for the physical asset. Then a current state of the physical asset is inferred. Then a long-term prediction is derived for the physical asset based on the inferred current state of the physical asset and the state-space model for the physical asset. Then an EOL probability distribution function is generated for the physical asset based on the long-term prediction, the EOL probability distribution function describing a range of estimates of EOL for the physical asset and their corresponding confidence intervals.