Systems, apparatus, and methods for determining incentives based on consumer history. When, how, and to whom incentives are sent can be determined. For example, an incentive can be sent to a consumer to encourage a transaction at a time when the particular consumer is predisposed to initiate the transaction. Also, an incentive for a transaction can be sent to a consumer when that transaction has a high likelihood of leading to other transactions. An incentive can also be sent after a consumer initiates a transaction that is known to not have many subsequent transaction correlated to it.