An engine control system of a vehicle includes an estimation module and an actuator module. The estimation module estimates a crankshaft angle where 50 percent of a mass of fuel is burned during a combustion event based on: a combustion speed when a crankshaft of an engine is at a predetermined position during the combustion event; an engine speed; a mass of air per cylinder (APC); a spark timing; and a predetermined spark timing. The actuator module controls an engine actuator based on the crankshaft angle where 50 percent of the mass of fuel is burned during the combustion event.